2011-12 NHL Eastern Conference Predictions

Opening Night is tomorrow and that’s not a minute too soon after the worst off-season in hockey history, and I’m not talking about the fact that Christian Ehrhoff making more money over the next two years than Sidney Crosby. (On that note, though, seriously?) With the attention now turning to what’s going on ON the ice, here’s a look at my Eastern Conference predictions for this season. Western Conference will be posted tomorrow.

Eastern Conference

1. Pittsburgh
2. Tampa Bay
3. Boston
4. Washington
5. Philadelphia
6. Montreal
7. Buffalo
8. Carolina

Not much of a change from last year as Carolina is the lone new team in the playoffs for me. This prediction is obviously based on the belief that Sidney Crosby will play the vast majority of the season, though it’s not inconceivable that the Pens could win the Atlantic with Crosby even playing 40 games. Dan Bylsma’s team changed its identity last year when it lost both Crosby and Evgeni Malkin and still came within four points of winning the division. With Malkin back and Crosby likely to play a good chunk of the season, this is a terrifying team that boasts depth across the board and already has the experience of winning a Stanley Cup and playing in two Finals.

I like the Lightning to usurp Washington’s spot from atop the Southeast. I think Steven Stamkos could make a run at MVP and I do like the Lightning’s firepower. I’m concerned about the goaltending, but the Bolts should survive a late push from the Capitals for their first division title since 2003-04, when they also claimed the Cup.

Boston’s the best and deepest team in the Northeast, which pains me to admit. The loss of Mark Recchi is a significant one for both his production and his leadership, but Tyler Seguin should blossom in an expanded role. Tim Thomas would be hard-pressed to match his amazing 2010-11 season, but he likely won’t fall off a cliff like he did in 2009-10.

Washington and Philadelphia might be two of the best teams in the league and could also easily win their divisions. Both have ridiculous offensive skill and can skate with anyone. I’m not entirely sold on the Flyers for a few reasons. Not too many teams lose three of their top-five pointgetters – one of whom was the captain and a shorthanded terror – and get better. For all of their shortcomings, Mike Richards and Jeff Carter are still two excellent players and the Flyers will feel those losses. I’m not an Ilya Bryzgalov believer. Let’s compare numbers here.

Goalie A: 2.48 GAA, .921% SP in the regular season. 4.36 GAA, .879% SP in the playoffs.

Goalie B: 2.59 GAA, .915% SP in the regular season. 3.23 GAA, .877% SP in the playoffs.

While I’m not suggesting that Sergei Bobrovsky (Goalie B) is as good as Ilya Bryzgalov (Goalie A) or that the Coyotes were as good defensively as the Flyers, the numbers are strikingly similar. Bryzgalov turned into a brick of Swiss cheese in the playoffs and seeing Philadelphia give him $51 million for nine years was nothing short of mind-blowing. Bryzgalov has been abysmal over the past two years in the playoffs, so maybe he fits right into what the Flyers want to do.

From 6-8, it’s a real mash-up. I’m biased, but the fact that Carey Price wasn’t a finalist for the Vezina last year is a travesty. Montreal wouldn’t have been within 20 points of the playoffs without him. He posted career-bests in wins, save percentage, goals against average, shutouts and shots faced and carried the Habs to the playoffs despite Andrei Markov and Josh Gorges playing a combined 43 games.

It’s likely that the defense improves with the return of Markov and Gorges, the departure of Roman Hamrlik and the continued development of everyone’s favorite defenseman, P.K. Subban, but the offense will likely be the reason why Montreal can’t hang with Boston.

Buffalo went out and actually signed live human beings in free agency, which is a new thing for the Sabres. The only problem is that they badly overpaid for, well, everyone. Ehrhoff got way too much money, especially considering the fact that he won’t see the back part of his contract, and $27 million over six years for Ville Leino, a guy who thrived in a good offensive system in Philadelphia but won’t do much in upstate New York, is laughable. Carolina’s young nucleus should help the ‘Canes get back to the playoffs. I really like Jeff Skinner and Cam Ward is still a stud.
Eastern Conference Playoff Predictions

First Round

Pittsburgh over Carolina in five

Tampa Bay over Buffalo in six

Montreal over Boston in seven

Philadelphia over Washington in six

Second Round

Pittsburgh over Montreal in six

Philadelphia over Tampa Bay in seven
Third Round

Pittsburgh over Philadelphia in six